Cantankerous Analysis

So, it certainly seems that this war has been a bit of a catastrophe for Israel. We had an opportunity given to us by Washington to really smash Hizballah and we just didn’t do it. Olmert delayed the required ground offensive until two days before the cease-fire was implemented, meaning that the day before the cease-fire Hizballah was still able to fire 250 rockets into Israel. This was also due in large part to the decision not to bomb Syria, which supplied rockets and rocket launchers to Hizballah throughout the duration of the war and helped coordinate the Hizballah operations from Syrian territory with the help of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

We now have a cease-fire agreement that is already being contravened by the Lebanese government which has said that Hizballah can keep their weapons in the south. It is also important to note that Hizballah is part of the Lebanese government with two ministers in the cabinet, so how that entity is supposed to impose its will, and the will of the U.N, on Hizballah is puzzling to say the least. It’s like telling Osama bin Laden to ensure that al-Qaida rein in its terrorist activities.

Furthermore, the U.N cease-fire resolution was not passed under Chapter Seven of the U.N. charter meaning it cannot be enforced by force. French soldiers will only fire on Hizballah when temperatures in the underworld fall considerably. The chances of the Lebanese “army” taking on Hizballah are, I would venture to guess, considerably less. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy, who during the war said that Iran was a force for stability in the Middle East has already said that disarming Hizballah will only be achieved through political means. As is obvious to most people who actually live on this planet as opposed to French-diplomat cuckoo-land, Hizballah are not known for their openness to political and diplomatic persuasion. Basically, it will not be long before Hizballah will be back on the Israel – Lebanon border digging in, rebuilding their fortifications and the situation will have returned to that of 12 July, 2006.

In addition to this, the cease-fire resolution brings up the topic of Shebaa Farms for discussion and for the international border to be re-examined. This is a horrendous mistake as it provides justification to Hizballah's original attack. The international border was delineated by UN resolution 1559 in 2004 and even talking about revising this ruling effectively means that the UN (and Israel by accepting the resolution) is allowing Hizballah to define international law, and legitimises its stance and position in international affairs.

Moreover, and as terrible as this sounds, I feel that the lives of the 117 soldiers who were killed were to a large degree sacrificed for nothing. Despite these losses we have not achieved our war aims, primarily that of dealing Hizballah a mortal blow. If Olmert had taken the necessary decision at the beginning, however hard it may have been, for a full scale invasion, deploying up to the Litani and rooting out Hizballah from this region then the four weeks grace Israel was given by Washington could have been much better used than the endless bombing raids which don’t seem to have achieved all that much. Our casualties may have been higher but at least then we may have had something to show for them.

Furthermore, America gave Israel a carte-blanche to strike a hefty blow against the Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah-Palestinian terror axis and we messed it up. They held off a cease-fire resolution for a month in the expectation that Israel would strike a harsh blow to one of Iran’s strategic assets but we failed to seize the opportunity. I feel that Israel will be back in Lebanon sometime again, maybe it’ll only be in another six years but this is not the end of the story. As the saying in Israel goes, ‘In Israel we live between wars’. I forgot to mention that Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev are still held captive by Hizballah.

Take a look at this article by Barry Rubin and these two (“An Unmitigated Disaster” and “The Olmert Government Must Go”) by Caroline Glick for some honest and sobering analysis of the war and its outcome.

Take a look at this article by Barry Rubin and these two (“An Unmitigated Disaster” and “The Olmert Government Must Go”) by Caroline Glick for some honest and sobering analysis of the war and its outcome.